CHINA—GOOD OR BAD FOR THE UNITED STATES?

                 By Sy Schechtman

                                               

         One of civilization’s prime assets is ancient  and modern Chinese input and wisdom.    But todaythisimpressive, massivesystem   of political and economic governanceis front and center as the world’senigmatic dilemma,muchas, almost a centuryago, Winston Churcill’s depictionof Czarist Russia’s Russian Bear imageas an enigmatic mystery “wrapped in a shroud”and concealing much anxiouspossibilities not exactly fraught with universal peace and security.Of course one can find significant  positive as well as negative trends in any political record, especially in the almost3500 year period ofChinese history,but in the last century at least much innocent human life has been destroyed in theideological end game many radical political leadershide behind—that “the end justifies the means.”  And which the   presentCommunist regime evidentlyis not reluctant to follow, as the violentgovernmental crackdownin 1989in Tianamen Squarekilling an estimatedlarge body of protesters—reliable guess estimates varying between300 to 400 hundred (official) to the student protestersfigure of three to four thousandyoung adults killed.

       Evidently,in a system that has the façade of socialist equality much wealth now is being directed for nationalist prestige purposes.   The prime example of thisis the great emphasis placed on the 2008Olympic games in China and the     lack ofbasic economic facts about China’sbudgetary expenses and projectedfinancial outlays which are not available for public scrutiny.  And thus also economic fundamentals;how much is being spent on “showpiece” non productivedisplays like the 2008 Olymlpics, or was spent on being only thethird country—after the United States and Russia—to put a man in space,and is even now being spent   on the almost imminent moon landingat a cost ofmany moreundisclosed billions of dollars.   China, too,has increased its military spending to continue its long term harassment of Taiwanas a whipping boyscapegoatthreat.    This externalalmost   hobgoblin fear being usedtodivert attention—most foreignanalystsfear--from the lack ofspendingfor much needed    social and educationalpayments to its very   needy large mass of poor rural peoplewho are the   bulk of its still very large underclass ofcountry side peasants.

         Evidently, up until now, withChina’s ruling oligarchy, unelected and with a not too veiled orsubtle iron fist of selective repression,a la Tiananim Square,  has chosenthe route of economic expansion as its panaceato China’s burgeoning growth problems.  It has embraced one central tenet of Westernphilosophy ---a private enterprise,individual for profitcapitalism, but under a tight rein of absolutepolitical control.  Trying to harness the innate humanthrust for selfbenefit financiallywith theother more devious  goals of an autocraticgovernment,anenigmato most of us,much as the Russiangovernmentpriorto Winston Chuchill’s timeover a hundredyears ago.   One that espouses nowa socialistfaçadebut has created a vibrantmiddle class of entrepreneursbecause of thethe free rein on economic growth---mainly in the coastal areas where existing transportation infrastructure already existed.Approximately  half thepopulation---700 millionin the agriculturalinterior boon dockshave been ignoredin this very selective economic leap forward into modernityand the “squandering” of money ontheseshow facadesof progress while it is estimated that40% of China’s villages have no running water.  Also drastically inadequate in rural China are medical services,and so are the schoolfacilities.    

         In its almost frantic haste tovault into the flesh pots of economic largesse China has overleapedevery countryexcepttheUnited States and Japan in gross domesticproductandhas become the prime exporting nationin the world.  And sometimes,as current headlineshave beenwarning, its now the world’s prime polluter, with many untoward toxic effects,aslead painted toys, medical drugs of very questionable purity,and pilfered or non existentcopyrightauthority for itslarge mediaproduction of compact discs and other related software. Above allits’ leap high into the economic stratosphere has featured almost rampant pollutionand a good part of its vasturban landscapeis shrouded in smog and smoke.  Indeed, Beijing,thecapitaland site of the 2008Olympicshas hada great, although mostly under wraps face lifting.   Many large chemical industry factories,a prime Beijingindustry and prime pollutant in the region,   have been uprooted as have the hordes of city dwellers working there.   Factories have beenrelocated to the outer fringes of the areaand the smog thus made less evident, but many jobs and workersalso hurriedly and with great hardshipmoved tomake for a pretty tourist but certainly inauthenticpicture.    

         A moreauthentic presentation of China’s perhaps overwhelming pollution problem was reported in the New York Times front page story on October  14^th.   “Lake Tai, the center of China’s ancient ‘land of fish and rice’succumbedthisyear to floods of industrial and agricultural waste……Toxic cyanobacteria, commonlyreferred to as pond scum, turned the big lake fluorescent green.The stench ofdecay choked anyone who came within a mile ofits shores.    A least two million peoplewho live amid the canals, rice paddies and chemical plants around the lake had to stopto stop drinking or cooking with their main source of water.”   

       The newer, post Mao,less harsh regime now in placein Beijingis aware of the negative international press, despite official censorship thathas tried to hide the pollution and authoritarian ruleat the core of their regime.  To further this “face lifting”they havestarteda “smile diplomacy”approach, opening up or enhancing many embassies in neighboringcountries.   The “carrot” and not the“big stick” approachthat they hadused under Mao, whose most profound politicalinsight was also a military one----“justice speaks out from a barrel of a gun”,Mao Tse Tungs’ most famous dictum. Softening this approach with apprehensive neighborsis no doubt politicand has raised China’s  imagein the region, and even world wide. While his approach is aimed overtlyatimproving foreign relations,  the crucialquinquennial (five yearly) nation wide secret conclavejust concluded this past October probably hasto do with over 50%of theChinese who are the peasant underclass,whose lot has not improvedmaterially by the prosperity of the  growing urban Chinesemiddle class.  This large rural population ,while gettinga trickle down increase in living standards,isstill embarrassinglybehindthe much more affluent coastalurban centers.  And they know this festering fact,for modern telecommunicationsand radioare availableuniversally,even to the many disenfranchised distant peasants in rice paddiesfar from central Beijing;there is festering dissatisfaction as a resultin the Chinesehinterlands.

         Many of us still recallNikita Kruschev, and Boris Yeltsin and histheir ill fated perestroika.-----an attempt to stave offwith limited reform the total collapseof the Soviet Empire. There waslarge scale discontent when they came to power which the Soviet systemalmost completely stifled by press censorship, and a terror network ofimprisonmentknown as the Gulag Archipelago,   and the worldwas astonished that each relaxation of oppressiononly seemed to encourage more demands for more liberty. As mentioned before this everyfifth year congress of the ruling Chinese CommunistParty has just concluded,and its 2217 delegates chosen in a very controlled mannerwill listen to the “party line”and approvethe will of Hu JIntao, their successful ruler since the lastfive year congress.  Undoubtedly Mr. Hu will be re elected by acclamation.  He plans to retire in 2012 andis looking around for his hand picked successor.  Too much freedom and debate about this favored individual will not be encouragednorabout new socioeconomic paths.  They are still gung ho with the Catch 22 oxymoronic path of political repression domestically and almost laissez faire capitalismeconomically.  And the current just concluded congress will be another tight wire spellbinderof“how can they keep them down on the farm after they’veseen Paree”! More than a hint of Maoism is still in the background.  While the regnant  Mr. Hu has spoken duringhis current term of encouragingmore debate and more frequent elections,none of thishas come aboutand at timesmore censorship is randomly imposed.   The world isall tuned in for the answer.Not for Gay Paree, of course,but how the economic pie will be moreequally distributed.   This time discussions and the give and take ofnegotiation and compromise.   And no more Tiannimin Squareviolence.

          The United States attitude,which so far seems to be successful,isthe exact opposite of our seemingly abortive Iraqi policy.   Not confrontational but very cooperative.  Even though hesitant about the ultimate     thrust of the structure of communist authoritarian control, we are very happy about theeconomic freedommanifest in their          espousal of the capitalist system.            They have become ourlargest trading partner andalso have become the second largest holder of our debt, just about ten billion dollarsless than Japan. While they also have the fastest growingeconomyin the world   ( as well as being the world’s prime polluter)they are still well below our total Gross Domestic Product .   So far this symbiosison the domesticChinese front seems to be beneficialon the larger Pacific Rimarea, too,wherethe United Stateshas manyimportanttrading concerns, and has ruled the roost insofar in economic trading    The recently concludedtreaty with the ever recalcitrantNorth Korea to abandon the use of nuclear fission may be a landmarkin mutual cooperationbetween China, Japan, North Korea, South KoreaRussia,and the United States.   For over 60 yearsthe United Statesand its very strong naval presence has kept the vast expanse of thePacific ocean an orderly maritime experience for world widecommerce.   Herenot confrontationbut mutual respecthave been the order of the day.   But alsowedid havethe big stickof our strong navy so that we couldafford to speak softly and our friends and foes would still listen very respectfully. And that includes the very tender subject of Taiwan,which nowand thenflares and then fadesas theUnited Statesinsists on peacefulnegotiation.While I is true that       now    China and Japan are increasing parts of their navalarsenal somewhat it is not a current cause of concern.   The presenceof the superiorUnited Statesarmada  as ultimate arbiter is a very stabilizing factor,tending to makea somewhat lowerrung on theprestige ladderquite acceptable forall the Asiatic nations   lower   down.         

         Perhaps the financial, physical and spiritual resources that made the United States the sole surviving superpower  in the world are decliningandsome portion of our dominant positionothers will justifiably acquire.    In the past, especially in the early 1980’s this seemed true, when we were mired in recessionand inflation anda body of our citizenswere held hostageby Iranand we had what Jimmy Carter calledour “malaise”.   Crime seemedon the rise and our urban streetswere not cleanas in other countries.We were calledthe “paper tiger” derisivelywhose time of greatness was over.   Obviouslythe last thirty years utterlybelied thatcynicalprojection.    And while we must act , asbefore, in our self interest,we must act also withtheenergy, ambition andgreatness that brought usto the fore in our family of nations.